Pitchers In The Mix

Interesting article by Jeff Gordon over at rototimes.com regarding pitchers who are coming back into the mix. He specifically discusses Roger Clemens, and how we might expect his ERA to increase due to the Yankees need for Roger to pitch further into each game than Houston had needed. Go check out the article, it gives you a good perspective on these returning hurlers.

With the calendar flipping to June tomorrow, it's time to take a look at the men on the mound who excelled in the month of June one year ago. It's Fantasy Baseball Central's "Moneyball" take on pitchers by month. With a critera of a minimum 20 innings pitched (except for saves,) in June of 2006 here are your leaders in each 5x5 pitching category:

Strikeouts

• 44 - Johan Santana and Jeremy Bonderman
• 40 - Jose Contreras
• 39 - Erik Bedard and Daniel Cabrera
• 38 - Jason Schmidt

ERA

• 1.05 - Johan Santana
• 1.17 - Chris Young
• 1.60 - Gil Meche
• 1.77 - Jeremy Bonderman
• 1.78 - Josh Johnson

WHIP

• 0.67 - Johan Santana
• 0.83 - Francisco Liriano
• 0.88 - Scott Olsen
• 0.95 - Chris Young
• 1.00 - Dave Bush

WINS

• 5 - Mark Redman and Johan Santana
• 4 - 13 different pitchers

SAVES

• 10 - Bobby Jenks and Houston Street
• 9 - Joe Borowski and B.J. Ryan
• 8 - Trevor Hoffman and Derrick Turnbow

So looking at these historical statistics, a few things jump out. First of all, several of these players are off-limits either due to the fact that they are injured or they are no longer in such a position to gather these statistics (i.e. B.J. Ryan and Derrick Turnbow respectively.) Some of them you would have a very tough time trading for, and would have to give up an awful lot for (i.e. Johan Santana.)

The one pitcher that you may want to take a long hard look at from this list is Scott Olsen. He currently has 47 Ks in 61.2 innings pitched, but he's on this list from 2006 due to his low WHIP. His WHIP to date in 2007 is fairly high at 1.59 (as his ERA at 5.11.) Let's take a step back to May of 2006 however. Scott's ERA in May of 2006 was 7.98 and his WHIP in the same month was 1.60. One month later in June of 2006 his ERA was 2.12 and his WHIP was 0.88 as mentioned in the list above. This went along with 29 Ks in 34 innings pitched. He may be due for a similar performance in June of 2007, so keep an eye on him.

Fantasy Baseball Prospect to Keep an Eye On

Down in the AAA International League, there is a gentleman by the name of Rajai Davis who is tearing it up on the basepaths. He will eventually be called up by the Pittsburgh Pirates to take a spot in the outfield. In 2006 Rajai swiped 45 bags while coming to bat 345 times. So far in 2007, he has taken 27 bases (while being caught 9 times,) in 197 at-bats. Keep an eye out for Mr. Davis to appear in the bigs in the not-too-distant future. When he does make it up, ensure that you have him on your fantasy league roster.

Fantasy Baseball

Is Prince Fielder this year's Ryan Howard?

Ryan Howard was the home run king last year. Is Prince Fielder on track to take over that crown this year? Here's a look at Ryan's splits for last year, and where Prince is this year:

Ryan Howard in 2006

• April HRs - 5
• May HRs - 13
• June HRs - 9
• July HRs - 8
• August HRs - 14
• September HRs - 9

Prince Fielder in 2007

• April HRs - 6
• May HRs - 12

Both Ryan and Prince led the league in home runs in the month of May in 2006 and 2007 respectively. Ryan wound up with 58 dingers last year. How many will Prince have before the season is over? Right now, he's on pace to come real close to Ryan Howard's number for dingers in 2006.

Fantasy Baseball

Riding Under the Fantasy Radar

One pitcher you may not have heard of but might want to investigate is pitcher Cha Seung Baek of Seattle. In 2006, Cha Seung Baek won four games while starting six to go along with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. So far in '07, he has two wins in seven starts, with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. HOWEVER, he has struck out 31 batters in 43 innings pitched which is where his value sits.
Fantasy Baseball

Stolen Bases

In the past week, Nick Punto has swiped four bags. This gives him eight on the year and just under half of his 2006 total of 17 swipes in 459 at-bats. So far he has 165 at-bats this season. If you're behind in the stolen bases category you might want to take a look at Mr. Punto. Based on career splits, he tends to hit for average before the all-star break, so you might want to pick him up sooner rather than later.
Fantasy Baseball

Fantasy Baseball Closer Report

The folks over at profantasybaseball.com have a nice 2007 Closer Report. They give a good update on recent activites with respect to closers and their impact on your fantasy baseball team. One of the real nice features is the current listing of top closers, along with a 2006 and 2007 comparison of their stats and who the potential back-up closer is.

The number eleven closer on this report is Takashi Saito who is having an excellent season so far (15 saves, 1.64 ERA through May 26.) However, if you're in a keeper league, take a close look at Jonathan Broxton. He is listed in profantasybaseball.com's report as the potential back-up closer for Takashi Saito. In 2006 he had 97Ks in 76 innings pitched to go along with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. So far this year, Broxton has 27Ks in 25 innings pitched along with a 1.78 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Take into account the fact that Saito is 37 years old, while Broxton is 22, and you're looking at a strong chance of Broxton taking over the closer duties (and picking up saves for your fantasy team,) in the not too distant future. Fantasy Baseball Central recommends adding Broxton to your roster now.
Fantasy Baseball

Ryan Braun called up

Looks like the Brew Crew called up Ryan Braun to hold down the job at the hot corner. In AAA ball, Braun was batting .342 with 10 homers and 22 RBI in 34 games according to Yahoo! Sports. Looks like he could be an excellent addition to your fantasy team.

Phillies' Closer

With Tom Gordon on the shelf, and Brett Myers just being added to the shelf, Fantasy Baseball Central sees the Phillies in a quandary for a closer. It looks as if they will go to the trifecta of Antonio Alfonseca, Geoff Geary, and Ryan Madson as their closers by committee. The Phillies, who are one game under .500 need these guys to step up now. Which one of them would Fantasy Baseball Central recommend picking up for your fantasy league? Take a look at the previous years' statistics, and the only one we could realistically see providing value for your roster is Geoff Geary.

Run Rookie, Run

Today we'll focus on the runs category of scoring in your fantasy baseball league. How can you accumulate more runs? One way is to look for up and coming players who are starting to score this year. Looking so far at the month of May, here are your rookies who are leading in the runs category:

• Reggie Willits
• Troy Tulowitzki
• Dustin Pedroia
• Fred Lewis
• Elijah Dukes
• Hunter Pence

All of these players are in double-digits for runs so far in the month of May. Your best chance for a free agent pick up is probably Fred Lewis, who is batting .306 so far, and would not be a bad addition to your fantasy baseball team at all.

Fantasy Baseball

Moneyball Fantasy League Strategy

For those who subscribe to the Moneyball theory of fantasy baseball, which states that past performance is a good indicator of future performance, let's take a look at who excelled in the month of June one year ago.

Home Runs

Jason Giambi 11
Justin Morneau 10
David Wright 10
Ken Griffey Jr. 9
Raul Ibanez 9
Adam Dunn 9
Ryan Howard 9

Most of these guys are way off-limits. But….you might be able to get a hold of Giambi, Griffey or Ibanez.

RBI

Justin Morneau 29
David Wright 29
Raul Ibanez 27
Garrett Atkins 27
Richie Sexson 26
Carlos Beltran 25
Lance Berkman 25
Ibanez shows up on both the top home run and rbi producer lists for June of 2006. If he is still available……….

Runs

Jose Reyes 28
Adrian Beltre 27
Curtis Granderson 25
Mike Cameron 24
Carlos Beltran 24
Julio Lugo 24
So Taguci 23
Grady Sizemore 23
Raul Ibanez 22
Todd Helton 22

Recognize a name on this list, from the previous two lists?

Fantasy Baseball

Top Home Run Hitters in May (so far)

Which two guys would you guess have hit the most homers in May, both with eight, so far? A-Rod and Barry Bonds? David Wright and Garry Sheffield? Try Jack Cust and J.J. Hardy. WHO? J.J. Hardy was probably on your radar as a fantasy baseball league participant before your draft this year. Chances are, Jack Cust wasn't. Jack Cust who is playing with his fifth major league team since 2001, has been unbelievable at the plate in May. He agreed to a deal with the A's when Mike Piazza went down and has been proving his mettle ever since. How long this offensive onslaught will last, only time will tell.
Fantasy Baseball

Buy Low

In fantasy baseball, if you're looking for help either via the waiver wire or a trade, chances are you won't be able to cherry pick the best performing players currently. What you may be able to do however, is look for players who are slumping seriously. Players who other managers already gave up on and dropped, or players another manager is willing to trade away. Here are some of those players:

• Ian Kinsler - he's batting .191 in the last month. He's bound to bounce back, but another manager could be frustrated with his batting average and be willing to trade at this point
• Bobby Abreu - 19 of 108 in the last month at the plate. That's a .176 clip. He won't continue this slump for very much longer.
• Johnny Damon - only 10 runs and batting .238 in the last month. In 2006, after batting .257 in May, Johnny hit .311 in June. June is approaching quickly.
• Paul Konerko - he's belted five homers in the previous month, but is only hitting .196. Similar to Damon, Paul had a mediocre May in 2006, hitting .234. He came back with a real strong June, batting a strong .366.

Fantasy Baseball

Runs and Stolen Bases

In the past week, there's been one player who has excelled in the runs and stolen base categories, who also just might be available in your fantasy league. His name is Reggie Willits, and plays outfield for the Angels. In the past week he has scored nine runs and swiped three bases. In addition, he could also help out in the average category, as over the past week he has gone 11 for 28 at the plate for a .393 clip.
Fantasy Baseball

Fantasy Baseball Central Recommends.....

Looking for a quick win for your team? Fantasy Baseball Central recommends checking out Jeremy Sowers from Cleveland who will be pitching tomorrow at home against Cinncinnati. Yes, Sowers' ERA is 6.56 and he is currently 0-3. However.....Cleveland is currently 14-3 at home, and Sowers' 3 losses have all come on the road. He's due. Pick him up for a quick win.
Fantasy Baseball

Fantasy Baseball Central's "Hot Hitters"

Here are the five top overall "Hot Hitters" in the past week, along with their statistics:

1. Jack Cust - 6 HR, 13 RBI, .320 avg.
2. Hunter Pence - 3 HR, 8 RBI, 2 SB, .611 avg.
3. David Wright - 2 HR, 5 RBI, 5 SB, .391 avg.
4. Carlos Lee - 8 R, 3 HR, 6 RBI, .542 avg.
5. J.J. Hardy - 4 HR, 12, RBI, .280 avg.

If you're looking to boost your team's average go for these guys, who are hot in the last week:

1. Rafael Furcal - .577 avg.
2. Orlando Cabrera - .452 avg. (14 of 31)
3. Carlos Lee - .542 avg.

Jack Cust and Hunter Pence may be available in your league. If so, Fantasy Baseball Central says, "GO GET THEM." With the other players listed here, you'll need to offer up some sweet trade bait to get 'em.
Fantasy Baseball